dm-your own cfo

The first half of 2026 was eventful. Gild and Silver hit all time highs then dropped big, the Nasdaq, S&P and Dow hit new all time highs and war in Iran brought an oil scare with per barrel prices soaring to $120. Personally, I visited the Philippines again and had a great time visiting iconic places with a friend tagging along or should I Tagalogging along…clever hey?

I preparing the 2nd qtr 2026 P&Ls for clients which also closes out the 6 months YTD 6-30-26. In past years, this 6 month period could help…

I am taking time away from the goofy daily news and wishing my first son Max, a most Happy Birthday. 

Love,

Dad

OK, so President Trump and Iran have signed a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding. It seems to be a capitulation document being touted as the “greatest win of the century” or pick your own superlatives.

I am not the first nor will I be the last to point out that nothing was won as Trump says. Rather, the US lost this 4 month war on all fronts from my analysis. 

Here is an over view:

• Before the War began on Feb 28, 2026 the Straight of Hormuz was open
• The war closed the Straight
• 52 aircraft and countless lives…

Many of my brethren will know the name, Milton Friedman. This remarkable man was an Economist of renown know in part for bringing back some common sense into that world. A world that has as many opinions as it does bad outcomes. 

I cannot be detailed here and refer those with interest to a very watchable 1 ½ hours documentary titled The Power To Choose which was taken from the PBS program of the same name and the subsequent summation of it in book form by Milton and his long time  wife and co-author Ann.

The…

When I traded the US Long Bond as a professional I learned how having a preconceived conviction makes one blind. You could even say delusional. The idea of holding tight to a market direction insisting you are Right while the market keeps telling you are not is kind of cray. Yes, this is somewhat a confession.

A while back, under the impression that I was right, not baseless but also not perfectly conceived, I went short the QQQ. Being a smart guy i used a leveraged ETF SQQQ which would naturally make me a…

It has been a while since I have posted. It is only due to my recent travels. I spent a month in the Philippines and had a great time, even an adventure if you allow.

I stayed in touch with the various goings on back stateside and to my pleasure, not much changed. The same old TACO, false national statistics and news spin continued unabated due to my absence. Of course, the question “if a tree falls and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?” arises. But in this case, me being out of the country…

Some might recall or ridden the Disney Theme Park classic Mr. Toad's Wild Ride…an up and down and all around adventuresome and thrilling experience. I think it is an apropos analogy to the Iran War and how President Trump is handling it.

First off, I do not like this war of choice and even though some issues needed resolutions and new agreements, I believe diplomacy and some common sense could have achieved that.  Am I naive? Perhaps in this modern world of trade and currency wars I am. You see, I believe…

Though a cease fire was declared in the US/Israel war against Iran, I highly doubt it will hold or prove to provide a good achievable framework for a true peace and cessation of all hostile activities. In fact, it has been reported that Israel is attacking Lebanon in specific Beirut apparently against agreements made by Trump. Iran sees that as a breach so the Straight is closed as I type. I suspect, with history at my back, that this so called cease fire will prove to merely be a rearming break and the…

Among the terrible aspects of War is the onset of Inflation. To be clear, I am not speaking of price increases as is often considered “inflation”. It is the RESULT of Inflation which is a Monetary event whereby the quantity of currency is increased ie Inflation and the existing currency in existence diluted or devalued. The USD has been debased since Nixon took the US off the Gold Standard in 1971. Reportedly it has lost a considerable percentage of its purchasing power. Here is AI's take: The U.S. dollar…

My son Derek turns another calendar year today March 22 2026. He is a ripe old 30. Unfortunately, due to some severe poisoning by his now deceased mother all related to her Scientology religion, I have not heard from Derek since Oct 8 2015, the day his mother died. It had been reported that she made a death bed wish to all of our children that they never communicate with me. The church she belonged called it disconnection. Nonetheless, I have always maintained love for Derek and his siblings and wish him…