Today March 19th is my Daughter Jen's birthday…I certainly wish her the very best birthday ever. Those who know me and Jen also likely know there is a lot to her tale, but that is not for here other than to say, Jen has faced some travails and managed them as good as one could expect.
re-Iran War Update
As the US/Israel vs Iran War continues, it has escalated to destroying oil infrastructure for both Iran and supposedly Israel/US aligned Gulf oil producers like Qatar. This creates financial problems up and down the oil line and nations that must import will suffer more of the brunt than say the US will due to its own domestic production. Prices will rise no matter what because oil is a world market but US supplies should remain constant. It is possible that the Straight of Hormuz will remain closed for the time being, even for quite a while. The US reported to have been dropping Bunker Busters on suspected launching sites lining the straights which if left operating IS the enforcement of the closure by Iran. They can and will blow up ships that have not been given permission to pass. This is but one reason we see the US Fleet pulling way back out of range into the Mediterranean sea. Whether or not the damaged Carrier USS Abraham Lincoln was hit or had a fire as reported by the DOD, is speculation. Personally, I buy into the likelihood that it was successfully hit but a missile a drone or both. Regardless, both US carriers and their entourages are more or less out of theater.
I am a bit surprised that oil is not at $150 but I have seen reports that in Asian markets it is $140/barrel at present which seems about right. Gasoline in my own neighborhood has risen sharply and appears to be still rising. This portends a lousy midterm for Trump and projected forward from there a lame duck last years fighting the Dems who will no doubt impeach him and if winning the Senate too it will have teeth. So much for the President of Peace…that is a broken promise even ardent fans will not forget. Having voted for him twice, it does disappoint but honestly, it doesn't surprise.
High oil prices makes transportation of goods across the transport spectrum more costly and that will make prices for food and much more rise adding to inflationary woes. The Fed quietly sees this and decided to not lower rates just now. Will they later? Not sure, but staying pat is not helpful either. There are those like Peter Schiff who think the fed should be raising rates and his view is gaining some traction. Time will tell, just watch the bonds.
I have voiced my opinion that this war was not a good idea. It does not become a better idea as more time and money and blood are spent fighting it. I say walk away. In fact, I believe Trump is looking for a way out, a face saver if you will. He might pull out the old hat of declaring victory and leave the mess he made to others. Will Israel pull out if the US does? Again, I am not sure but I think they might elect it too and go lick their wounds which are substantial. We just do not get to see how hard they've been hit on our curated news. Will Iran cease their missile and drone storms? I think so, if only to regroup, lick their own wounds, again substantial, and continue producing the missiles and drones that kept their sovereignty in tact.
God help us if Netanyahu goes berserk and nukes Iran in a last ditch desperate act to “win”. I tend to think that Iran may have already made an A Bomb or two in the 3 weeks of fighting. Why not when they see that nobody f----s with north Korea since they have an arsenal of them on ballistic missiles that can hit San Francisco. Nuclear deterrence at work. In the US, everyone has guns but even here the convicted criminals are restricted from gun ownership. Could that work on the world stage? I doubt it works in the US because remember, a criminal is of the mind to commit crimes - like having possession of illegally gotten weapons perhaps…I see no reason a nutty Nation would be any different. There is an oymoron of sorts that says only responsible sober Nations should have nukes. Huh?
Stay well, be safe, be hppay, buy some extra food and keep some extra cash nearby. A little gold and silver too…both are on sale today at lower prices.
Best,
Donn Marier
DM-Your Own CFO