The recent 25 basis point rate hike the Fed put in did little to nothing. Long end rates including the 10 year are rising sharply and beating the Fed to the punch. These hikes by the market indicate concern over the entire US debt and repayment structure. Tooo much debt at too high a rate equals more troubles for the Treasury to make ends meets. Bessent tried buying down rates, gave billions to Japan so they would not sell the US Bond and quietly buying the 30 year to replace it with 2 year bonds…All in all…

WIll the Fed raise rates or let them be? Ah, that is the question. Kalshi still indicates they will let them be. We shall see. The markets will react for sure but in what direction. A hike will turn bonds lower and likely the stock markets will go down taking just about everything with them even our precious metals miners who are current;y printing money. I cannot see winners unless some shorts catch a break to the downside.

Best,

Donn Marier

DM-Your Own CFO

The first half of 2026 was eventful. Gild and Silver hit all time highs then dropped big, the Nasdaq, S&P and Dow hit new all time highs and war in Iran brought an oil scare with per barrel prices soaring to $120. Personally, I visited the Philippines again and had a great time visiting iconic places with a friend tagging along or should I Tagalogging along…clever hey?

I preparing the 2nd qtr 2026 P&Ls for clients which also closes out the 6 months YTD 6-30-26. In past years, this 6 month period could help…

I am taking time away from the goofy daily news and wishing my first son Max, a most Happy Birthday. 

Love,

Dad

OK, so President Trump and Iran have signed a MOU (Memorandum of Understanding. It seems to be a capitulation document being touted as the “greatest win of the century” or pick your own superlatives.

I am not the first nor will I be the last to point out that nothing was won as Trump says. Rather, the US lost this 4 month war on all fronts from my analysis. 

Here is an over view:

• Before the War began on Feb 28, 2026 the Straight of Hormuz was open
• The war closed the Straight
• 52 aircraft and countless lives…

Many of my brethren will know the name, Milton Friedman. This remarkable man was an Economist of renown know in part for bringing back some common sense into that world. A world that has as many opinions as it does bad outcomes. 

I cannot be detailed here and refer those with interest to a very watchable 1 ½ hours documentary titled The Power To Choose which was taken from the PBS program of the same name and the subsequent summation of it in book form by Milton and his long time  wife and co-author Ann.

The…

When I traded the US Long Bond as a professional I learned how having a preconceived conviction makes one blind. You could even say delusional. The idea of holding tight to a market direction insisting you are Right while the market keeps telling you are not is kind of cray. Yes, this is somewhat a confession.

A while back, under the impression that I was right, not baseless but also not perfectly conceived, I went short the QQQ. Being a smart guy i used a leveraged ETF SQQQ which would naturally make me a…

It has been a while since I have posted. It is only due to my recent travels. I spent a month in the Philippines and had a great time, even an adventure if you allow.

I stayed in touch with the various goings on back stateside and to my pleasure, not much changed. The same old TACO, false national statistics and news spin continued unabated due to my absence. Of course, the question “if a tree falls and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?” arises. But in this case, me being out of the country…

Some might recall or ridden the Disney Theme Park classic Mr. Toad's Wild Ride…an up and down and all around adventuresome and thrilling experience. I think it is an apropos analogy to the Iran War and how President Trump is handling it.

First off, I do not like this war of choice and even though some issues needed resolutions and new agreements, I believe diplomacy and some common sense could have achieved that.  Am I naive? Perhaps in this modern world of trade and currency wars I am. You see, I believe…

Though a cease fire was declared in the US/Israel war against Iran, I highly doubt it will hold or prove to provide a good achievable framework for a true peace and cessation of all hostile activities. In fact, it has been reported that Israel is attacking Lebanon in specific Beirut apparently against agreements made by Trump. Iran sees that as a breach so the Straight is closed as I type. I suspect, with history at my back, that this so called cease fire will prove to merely be a rearming break and the…