2025 in Review
An Accountants and Citizens View
In Accounting work, we deal with “periods”. A period can be hours, days, weeks, month, quarters, years and so on. We like to believe that monitoring these various periods arms us with insights that could be used to make future periods better yet.
In order to get value from periods already passed, we try to observe changes, make connections to causation and relationships between various areas and statistics and consolidate these observations and evaluations into new improved policies and programs. We apply these going forward in good faith that they will provide a slightly better result than incantations.
My review of the now closed 2025 tax year will be kept simple and avoid too much jargon. Keep it simple stupid comes to mind as my guide.
2025 a Year of Tariffs, Inflation, Brics, Debasement Trades and Meteoric Precious Metals and of course our mundane day to day efforts to keep our heads above the water.
President Trump made 2025 very interesting with his shake up of the world trade order using tariffs to get the attention of other nations. It worked in that it did get a lot of attention. Did it get any favorable results? Perhaps. The argument he makes is that Tariffs raise revenue and are paid by our trading partners NOT the end user, us plebes. Well, I disagree, because Tariffs are taxes on goods coming into the USA and those tariffs eventually increase the price of goods in the marketplace. In that way tariffs are inflationary but more in a one time manner than ongoing like the normal concept of Inflation as applied month to month when stating the “rate of inflation”.
Inflation is to most, a rise in prices, but that is not actually what it is. Inflation is more accurately an increase, inflating of or to the money supply. The Federal Reserve prints up $1Trillion and the available money in circulation goes up. This “printing” is not literal but is money creation out of thin air so close enough. With more money chasing the same goods, prices rise. It would be correct to say that increases in prices is one result of Inflation. This leads to less goods and services being afforded by the average Joe and Jane so their lifestyle goes down. This can be abated if wages were to rise at a similar or higher rate than the Inflation rate, but that has not been the case in my opinion. Plus the official reports are off and even non-existent at times, and I believe that is done on purpose for political reasons. Getting gas lighted that we have the best and strongest economy in the history of the world is just insulting. We actually live in the economy and see what is really going on. To say that is true must be qualified in that it is true for those below the top tier 10% who own assets that benefit in rising values with Inflation. Houses go up, gold goes up, land goes up, Farms go up even art and Rolex watches goes up...these assets benefit from Inflation whereas daily cars, flat screen TVs, clothing, purses, and other consumed items depreciate...they get less valuable even in low inflationary times and worse so n inflationary times.
So part of my review cites Tariffs and Inflation playing big roles in our collective 2025 lives.
The Brics made great strides in decoupling from the USD which is one of their prime objectives after losing trust in it. When the USA and others grabbed the Russian assets held in as US Bonds it put the entire world on notice that the rule of law has been suspended and it could happen to anyone. This gave a little more urgency to the BRICS nations and they began trading and settling in their own currencies and most notably more so in Gold. It is fair to say that GOLD is the new BRICS currency at least for trade settlements across borders. That effectively locks out the need for USDs and US Bonds so interest rates have to rise to attract bond buyers. How is that going? Not so great. The new Stable Coins brought about by the Genius Act requires they be tied 1 to 1 with USDs and that means US Bonds. Clever way of getting new buyers who otherwise might be reluctant. As BRICS transactions get further independence from the USD, the Bond yields must rise and that raises our debt service...$9 Trillion is due to be refinanced in 2026 so good luck with that Scott (our Tres sec). BRICS will continue to be the alternative for the east and global south and Gold is along for the ride.
Gold has always been money. It has also been a hedge against debased fiat currencies like we have in the USD. Others exist too, in fact there is still no substantially backed currency like once was the case. The Swiss Franc used to be backed by 40% Gold and we had Gold Certificates and Silver Certificates which were currency notes exchangeable for precious metals. That changed long ago and its death nail in the coffin was in 1971 when then President Nixon closed the Gold window and we were instantly off the Gold standard. Of note, gold’s price rose precipitously to $850 the all time high up to more recent times. Since 1971, the USD has lost about 99% of its purchasing power...that is currency debasement. The remaining 1% is now 100% of what is left and is going fast. As the USD dies, Gold rises and in my view will again play its important role as money and trust will return. But not before a lot if unrest appears. Hold on to your hats.
You’ll note that I did not highlight War above, but it is a natural occurrence when currencies die so I expect more of it along with the typical rallying cries of Patriotism. Who the enemy will be is probably baked in as China but Russia has always been popular as an enemy and of course Arabs of one tribe or another their fair share. Even the Europeans are now colored as enemies if you read between the lines of the rhetoric being spit out by the WH. If it weren't so predictable it would be shocking, but it is par for the course throughout history. When in doubt take them to war is a typical mantra spoken in hallowed halls among cigar smoking “unelected” officials. Who really is in control. Follow the money.
The Debasement of the USD and other Fiat currencies is well in progress and accompanied by the meteoric rise in precious metals as they return to their historical function as money and stores of value. Silver is a bit unique in the mix because it also has an ever increasing industrial application and that will continue. I expect to see $5000 Gold and $100 Silver very soon while price action gets more volatile. Even higher prices seem possible in longer time frames. One bright analyst uses the phrase. "Nothing Stops This Train” meaning that no action(s) taken now so late in this debt burdened cycle will stop it. Maybe slow it, but it will eventually result in the USD going to zero. Don’t believe me, look at the history of Fiat currencies and you will see that not one survived. Ever. Ray Dallio has done a good job explaining this history so look up his videos and read his books. Well worth your time. Others too like Jim Rickards and Larry Lepard.
So 2025 was pivotal. The USD accelerated its demise, BRICS accelerated their divorce from it, Gold asserted its rightful place as God’s money and Silver is shining again. Not to forget Platinum is rising as well.
I see 2025 as the beginning year of a series of years that will bring new trials and tribulations to be endured. Some may escape it to a degree if they planned a good alternative while others, I fear most, will be surprised and shocked at how fast things fall apart.
I find a little gold and silver comforting. Some extra food stores too and maybe a plan to survive and protect the family in civil unrest. If hunger gets back into the scene, look out. Hungry people do not think but act and civility disappears as stomachs empty. Be a student of history and read up a bit on the Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe and Argentina...these were dramatic currency unravelings that hurt many and more or less in current times. It can happen here. It has been said and correctly so that civility is just 3 missed meals away.
If this seems remote, OK. But there is no harm in reading up more and implementing a few simple steps to provide a better chance of a decent outcome in case it asserts itself as described. Not all is doom and gloom and many will thrive having the benefit of their plans in action. As always, not planning is planning to fail.
We can still make 2026 a good year. Think locally, think of family, your immediate business and clients. That is where life is lived. As the USD goes down in value and interest rates rise to attract Bond buyers, times will be difficult. But remain alert, plan some alternatives to the USD and you can beat the worst father time can throw at us.
Best to you for a great 2026.
Donn J Marier
DM-Your Own CFO