Did the Markets Finally Reverse yesterday or is it the proverbial buying opportunity?
With the exuberance or dumb speculation going on, this is a roulette table bet. I am of the opinion that momentum gave signs of an iffy rise and a downturn of 2-3% suggests a break and a beginning of downward momentum that push a retreat to earlier 2025 lows and beyond. I can hold my own using technical analysis but also use my view from 30,000 feet to assess global risks. Coupling global risks with US Debt risks and simple overvaluation takes no genius. The factors line up that support vulnerability in the SP500, DOW and QQQ. The Candlestick on the daily chart is a beautiful start to what could become a trend reversal. I can't give my guarantee, but this does have that feel and look.
Those who call for a “crash” might be disappointed and witness a grinding downtrend that gives hope in quick stabs up only to fall again to a further low. THAT is a bear market and the buy the dip becomes sell the rally mentality. I participated in the dot com era reversal which had characteristics of a crash but to get the 70-80% drop took 2 years +/-. That is a grinding bear market not a flash crash. My observation is that a crash like move began then in fits and starts became a bear disappointing and perhaps dumbfounding traders who had never seen a bear market. I believe we have many in that unenviable position today.
I do not give investment advice but good or bad I have and will continue to share what I am doing. Yesterday I closed out my mining stocks, Newmont 46%+ Kinross 28%+ but held my EPGFX which is a fairly sizable percentage of my stock or stock related holdings. That particular fund in managed by Adrian Day who I have great respect for in his fundamental understanding and calm demeanor in price fluctuations. When everyone is throwing out their pizza, he is at the dumpster grabbing them before they touch the bottom where they become infected and rides them up and out into the sunshine. Damn, that is a lousy analogous way of putting it, but suffice it to say that that he is an old dog with wisdom in his back pockets. I mentioned I took a position in this fund over 6 months ago and that one is still held but sitting with a 46% gain. Sure it ain't sexy like the high flyers on the QQQ but its Beta is pretty chill and I seem to do well sleeping with it tucked under my pillow.
I will remain short using SQQQ which leveraged a -3X…that means it is a short fund using 3x leverage so a little bang for the buck. It is responsive to the Nasdaq top 100 so captures plenty of the biggies that move the composites.
I hope you all have taken a little profit out of the metals. These have given us some nice gains. An important distinction must be made though, I AM NOT SELLING PHYSICAL METALS. I continue to hold and acquire physical gold and silver which are more or less savings vehicles not speculative short term approaches like mining stocks. As said, I closed out gold miners held EPGFX for a less volatile hand left in, and I kept SILJ which hit an all time high at $15.52 on July 20, 2025…this is speculative and I am in using a small position. If we get a rocket ride in Silver, it will respond with a lot of juice for a good potential profit. It reminds me of the player who can hit homers 400 yards out and the player who can bat .400…which do you want to be?
OK, the Markets are alive and volatility appears to be awakening again. I love it.
And don't worry, there are plenty of blogs coming back on taxes etc. The year end is still off of main focus until the 3rd Qtr. approaches its end. That said, it is still timely to adjust for tax purposes so call to discuss your specifics.
Almost forgot, I categorize my Glint holdings in both Gold and Silver as physical metals even though they are held in a Swiss Vault. That platform makes fractional buying and selling as easy as a click stroke. I really like Glint and Kinesis too. These modern platforms for holding and UTILIZING Gold as money are still mostly unknown to the public. These do not replace actual physical metals but as said, I put them in the physical column when tallying the cash placed. If you are not into Glint that's OK. If you are unaware of it, visit them at https://glintpay.com/us. Tell them DM sent you. LOL
Best,
Donn Marier
DM-Your Own CFO