Some might recall or ridden the Disney Theme Park classic Mr. Toad's Wild Ride…an up and down and all around adventuresome and thrilling experience. I think it is an apropos analogy to the Iran War and how President Trump is handling it.
First off, I do not like this war of choice and even though some issues needed resolutions and new agreements, I believe diplomacy and some common sense could have achieved that. Am I naive? Perhaps in this modern world of trade and currency wars I am. You see, I believe this war is as much about the USD as anything. Keeping the reserve currency status is a crucial part of Trump and Bessent's plans. Frankly, I do not see the financial wisdom in adding another trillion to the US National Debt as beneficial and certainly do not see how this unilateral or bi-lateral if including Israel, decision to flatten Iran helps the US Bond either. Bessent has a big refi coming up and he needs to somehow retire and/or replace about 9 Trillion as older Bonds mature. Gee, what happens if there are no takers? Well, the Federal Reserve picks up the slack and buys Bonds by printing up some new cash…oh, will that effect Inflation? As Groucho would say, YOU BET YOUR LIFE!
The war reports, depending on sources, say the war is going swimmingly for the USA, yet looking a little deaper and perhaps at less US centric sources, it appears that may not be so true. The “cease fire” as it were is a joke having collapsed with the recent firing upon an Iranian Cargo ship, NOT an OIL Tanker, boarding it and seizing control of it all in International waters. Last I knew, that is piracy. Had it been an Iranian Naval vessel it could arguably be said it was within the greater war, but a civil cargo ship is a different story. Done supposedly to enforce the US Blockade, it pissed off those Mullahs and IRGC folks a bit and now what. The war continues unabated and the Iranians retaliated with a swarm drone attack on a US war ship, apparently disabling it. An escalation by any other name.
I remind all here that the Straight of Hormuz was open to all on Feb 27th. Then after the US and Israel attacked on Feb 28th it was shut. Since, Trump's focus has been on reopening it even going so far as to remove sanctions on Iran and Russia oil so the newly depressed world supply would be assured. Brilliant ass backward plan. The spin is all about the Iranian nuke stuff but keep in mind that there was an agreement, not perfect but workable, in place and Trump opted out in 2018. Argh!
It must be said that Trump does appear to be throwing his own supporters under the bus in favor of Bebe's plans for a greater Israel. The Israel lobby has been working overtime on this US support continuing and so far so good, they have it. The MAGA people are not all happy campers and polls say his popularity has waned to 37% by some pollsters and even lower by others. For such a populist President, I wonder what gun is to his head. Some posit it is his Epstein connection. I think Bondi's hastened departure might speak to that but I am only using a little speculation or conjecture on my part.
So we have an unnecessary war of choice, an Israel first policy, a MAGA crowd under a bus and US Soldiers dying…yes indeedy, this Mr.Trump's WIld Ride. Can I get off now please. Oh, not to betray my accounting viewpoint, the USA is insolvent and still spending on its credit card but Daddy in the form of the Bond Vigilantes will be taking that card away sooner or later. I say sooner, but not before more blood is shed as the minimum monthly payment. Someday and maybe soon, Pax Americana will be a bedtime story.
Best,
Donn Marier
DM-Your own CFO