I have always enjoyed Etymology which is the study of the origin of words and the way in which their meanings have changed throughout history. The origin can tell a tale about the word and its original usage. I find that an interesting study especially in a world that is redefining so many words. It's approaching that dystopian world of 1984 where 2+2=5.
The latest word being redefined is RECESSION. The common definition has been:
a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters
I suppose there is some wiggle room in that so a more precise definition might be helpful. Janet Yellin among others is saying they DO have a more precise definition and they are invoking now, for what appears the first time in public, in order to tell Americans we are not in a recession. Financial downturns are political hot potatoes and no President wants that on his watch.
The expedience of changing a definition is clear but I have a problem with it. A new definition is ignorant of the old definition and the history thereby gets changed too. So reading an article for example about the Consumer Price Index date today, you'd have no context of what that meant say in 1978. The fact of the matter is that the two may be similar but are NOT THE SAME. Any pilot can tell you that just 1 degree off for their heading over many miles will take you to the wrong place. The same holds true for changing the meaning of CPI or Recession. All of a sudden the past is changed without declaration for awareness and we end up in the wrong place.
There are those in the know on such maneuvers and then there are those who don't know. Most of the population doesn't know. That isn't a fault because they have been victimized by those in the know. A number of rebellious economic advisors are speaking truth about what CPI is per its Etymology and refusing to repeat the new definition of recession. The simply do not want to change the past into meaningless information by making it now a different or revised history. This revisionism is a hallmark of 1984 dystopian societies which seem plentiful at the present time.
So let me put this straight:
- Using the original meaning of CPI, inflation is about 18%
- Using the Original meaning of Recession, we are in one
If you have any questions, you can probably get them answered by joining the rebellion and rejecting this trend of changing definitions for political expedience. Simply put, it makes people stupid and ignorant about history. In my opinion it is crucial to remember where you were in order to know where you are.
Best,
Donn Marier
DM-Your Own CFO