Though a cease fire was declared in the US/Israel war against Iran, I highly doubt it will hold or prove to provide a good achievable framework for a true peace and cessation of all hostile activities. In fact, it has been reported that Israel is attacking Lebanon in specific Beirut apparently against agreements made by Trump. Iran sees that as a breach so the Straight is closed as I type. I suspect, with history at my back, that this so called cease fire will prove to merely be a rearming break and the mutual poundings will resume while the Hormuz remains under Iranian control.
Iran has stated that they will control the Hormuz Straight in tandem with Oman both charging $2MM per ship to pass IN YUAN or BITCOIN with NO US DOLLARS ACCEPTED! Now that says something to those who believe that the USD is on its way out. Well, it by itself, may not bring that about, but it doesn't help the US Reserve Currency's position.
The public presentations of the Iranian 10 point peace plan to the USD 15 point peace plan are so far away from each other to appear as if they are on different planets, speaking different languages and being different species altogether. They certainly are different cultures. These two parties (three if counting Israel) are far far away from anything that will work. I believe, that Israel is acting unilaterally outside the cease fire and that will force Iran to ignore it and take actions to help Lebanon by further attacks in the Gulf. It is entirely possible that those Gulf States still supporting the Israel/US war will get hit more and more and even their oil & gas fields and oil infrastructure are now targets.
The supposed rescue mission of the downed F-15 pilot is now being commonly reported as a failed special ops mission to grab the Iranian's enriched Uranium. I find it curious or maybe predictable that this Uranium was reported as buried under unimaginable tonnage of rock in Operation Midnight Hammer or so it was said. Come on, get the story straight please. I am reminded of President Lincoln's famous quote "You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time." A little truth now and then would be nice. The problem eventually becomes the boy who cried wolf thing.
I am not a fan of this war of choice because I believe there were other alternatives albeit none easy, plus it is a big question in my mind that the Iranians were so close to having a nuke like Israel informed Trump was true. After all, that has been repeatedly said for 20 years. If this book is being written with the drama it deserves, the Iranians will be putting together a few A bombs during this cease fire and come out of it guns blazing or at least with new atomic guns drawn to deter more attacks and maintain control of the Gulf Shipping traffic. This could be projected to become quite a conflagration with nukes going in both directions. Besides the immediate death and destruction which is unthinkably horrible, there is no use for radioactive oil. I mean, you saw what happened to those giant ants in THEM!
OK, the war is paused for now. It will not reach anything workable in the negotiations in my opinion. Trump will have failed to find a face saving exit and may have no choice but to bomb bomb bomb until as he said the Iranian Civilization is gone. Such concepts from the once beacon of freedom' President are more startling than anything about the price of oil or the USD reserve status or almost anything…President Reagan once famously said, “If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to. This is the last stand on earth”. I fear he was right and much more prescient than he knew. I am getting to wonder if we will be considered such a desireable Nation to migrate to for much longer. I think some decency, it needn't be a lot, helps keep the faith so to speak. Maybe I am just too far out fo the loop to =wrap my pea brain around the current tactics. Sigh!
I'd like to offer a prayer that some Divine intervention occurs causing the minds on all sides that are obviously out of control back into a working state where they can actually settle issues and let the world get on with it. NO ONE I know wants this war. Certainly no one in Iran wants this war and I have my serious doubts that the Israeli people want this war with exception of Neteyanhu. It is too easy to just toss up our hands and proclaim that the Middle East is nuts and doomed in their 1000s years old tribal squabbles. It is time to retrench back into our Domestic problems here in the USA and let Iran and Oman do their thing running the Hormuz Toll Booth. Let the oil flow not the blood.
Best,
Donn Marier
DM-Your Own CFO